Dan O'Rourke, CPJ treasurer, contributes a regular column to the Dunkirk Observer.  The following, “Iraq – the writing on the West Wing wall,” was published on December 8, 2005.   

On Veterans Day as President Bush was addressing a military audience in Tobyhanna, Pennsylvania, I was in a hospital waiting room. A television set in the corner was carrying the President live.  A woman there said to no one in particular, “I don’t believe a word he says.”  A man spoke up in agreement.

Another younger man holding a baby said quietly, “I was in Iraq for two tours of duty as a reservist.” The room grew quiet.  Then the woman gesturing toward the TV added, “Oh I support the troops; I just don’t believe him.”

“I don’t believe him either,” the veteran agreed, “and I don’t think those troops sitting behind him believe him.”

Less than a week later Congressman John Murtha, the top Democrat on the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, said in widely publicized remarks, “The war in Iraq is not going as advertised.  It is a flawed policy wrapped in illusion….  Our military has done everything that has been asked of them…. It is time to bring them home.”

Murtha spent 37 years in the Marine Corps, earned the Bronze Star, two Purple Hearts, the Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry, and the Navy Distinguished Service Medal. Even if some politicians do not agree with the specifics of his redeployment plan, he is widely respected by the military. He had visited Iraq recently and has close friends among the brass. He is saying publicly what generals on the ground in Iraq cannot say for fear of derailing their careers.

Murtha is not the only one who thinks this war is flawed and foolish. Martin van Creveld, a world-respected military history professor at the Hebrew University in an astonishing article in “Forward” magazine, has written that the Iraq war is “the most foolish war since Emperor Augustus in 9 B.C. sent his legions into Germany and lost them.”

The reaction of the young veteran in the waiting room convinced me that many at all ranks in the military see this war as un-winnable and that our continuing presence only fuels the opposition. Murtha’s prepared statement said, “over 80% of Iraqis are strongly opposed to the presence of coalitions troops, and about 45% of the Iraqi population
believe attacks against American troops are justified.”

Initially the White House, Vice President Cheney, and Republicans in the House of Representatives attacked Murtha with swift-boat savagery, but this time the usual political attacks didn’t work.  Murtha was too respected and his military and patriotic credentials unassailable.

The President’s falling poll numbers, Murtha’s blunt statement and a bi-partisan resolution in the Senate calling for periodic reports on the Iraq war are prompting the White House to change course.

Rumors are already circulating of Pentagon plans to bring troops home after the Iraqi elections scheduled later this month. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Fox News, “I do not think that American forces need to be there in the numbers that they are now for very much longer because Iraqis are stepping up.''

Stepping up? Since when have Iraqi troops become so capable? In October America’s top generals in Senate testimony admitted that only one of the hundred and nineteen Iraqi battalions can operate by itself in combat situations.

Another concern is whether the mainly Shiite military is trustworthy. American troops have uncovered the Shiite military’s torture of Sunni prisoners.  Uniformed gunmen also murdered a Sunni sheik, his three sons and his son-in-law. Neighbors reported that about ten Iraqi army vehicles were parked outside the sheik’s home during the assassinations. There is also compelling reason to believe that spies loyal to the insurgency have infiltrated the Iraq military, and now they are stepping up and we are stepping down! Why now?

In a recent report obtained by the media, the Iraqi Prime Minister stated honestly that Iraq’s military and police have “a long way to go” in dealing with the insurgency and crime. The report concluded “that the Iraq army needs more men, better leaders, new equipment and improved training” in order to function without American support.

Bulgaria and Ukraine will begin withdrawing their 1,250 troops by the middle of this month.  A half dozen other coalition nations also are considering possible pullouts or reductions.

Now that the political writing has miraculously appeared on the West Wing wall, the majority of the ground troops will be home by Election Day 2006. Some strategic units will stay in Iraq along with the air force to protect American bases, but that last ditch military shift like the whole misadventure in Iraq is also doomed to fail. (See Seymour Hersh’s article in “The New Yorker” magazine for December 5.)

The White House, however, is determined to find a way to safe face, declare victory and get out of the chaos it has created. President Bush is down in the polls and is losing his base among skittish Republican politicians and a frustrated military.  That’s why he’s no longer chanting his “stay the course” mantra.

Never mind the data. Whether the Iraqi military is ready or not the Bush administration has made up its mind. It will celebrate Iraq’s gerrymandered elections, praise the Iraqi military, dramatize base turnovers with flag changing ceremonies, declare “victory” again and again, and bring our ground troops home. When you think about it, it’s completely consistent.  The same administration that lead us into this war with misinformation will try to get out with misinformation.

But what if Iraq continues to deteriorate into a full-blown civil war?  No problem.  The White House will blame the Iraqis. That too is consistent.  Bush has yet to take responsibility for this debacle. Even his exit strategy is “a flawed policy wrapped in illusion.”